Книжка 1, 2002

Issues of medium-term forecasting of the economic growth in Bulgaria are considered. Econometric models are used for the purpose of medium-term forecasting of the economic growth in this country.
The study is organized as follows. In the first section theoretical issues of the modlling and forecasting of the economic growth in Bulgaria as a country in transition are presented. In particular, the specificities and main patterns of macroeconomic development since the start of transition is described as an undefinite and unfavourable basis for forecasting in medium-term. The quality of statistical data (the time series) in the last over 10 years reflecting the transition economic reality is discussed as well as the nature of the applied models.
In the second section medium-term forecasts for Bulgaria's economic growth based mainly on regression analysis are produced. Two alternative scenarios for Bulgaria's accession to the EU are calculated: one that assumes accession in 2007, and another that assumes that the country will not accede to the EU before 2010 (the status quo scenario). A production function is also applied taking into account the theory of endogenous growth. Finally concluding comments are given.
JEL: С20, C50, E17, F43

The main trends in capital movement and factors influencing in different countries groups - advanced, developing, and countries in transition are analysed. The structure of the net capital flows to the emerging markets in the world regions is studied, with the special attention is paid to the dynamics of the private capital flows. Growing importance of the foreign direct investment is connected with the studies of the main role of the international financial centers, which influenced substantially on the directing of the capital flows, especially in the conditions of the international financial crises. The estimation of the special role of the offshore centres is made taking in mind concentration of the financial assets, development of the financial services and restructuring of the bank systems of the advanced countries.
JEL: F02, F21, F32, F47, G18

The international financial system will not evaluate on the model of the Bretton Woods monetary system, because it depends of the totally different economic and financial conditions, linked with the processes of the globalization. The projects for a new financial architecture are not systematic and ordered, and there are not a lot of practical applicationя, because of the differences in the economic and financial interests of the three centers - USA, Europe and Japan. Generally, the new financial architecture is evaluating in three directions. The first one is linked, especially after the financial crises of the nineties, with the regulation of the fixed exchange rate, the free movement of capitals and the autonomy of the monetary policies. The second direction lay on the introduction on some order in the free movement of capitals between the financial markets. The third one is the structuring of regional monetary union like the European financial space - the result of the long-dating efforts of the adaptation of the financial systems of the EU countries. The acceptance of the Euro increases the integration of the monetary and capital markets and adds for the entirely structuring of the European financial space. It is possible in the future to be formed three monetary zones of currency influence, in which the Euro, the dollar and the yen will play a principal role. Bearing in mind that smooth rules of behavior will be negotiated between the three zones of currency influence, we can await that the international monetary system will adapt to the changes in the international trade and payments.
JEL: F30, F33, F36, F37

Based on the study of the Russian experience in developing Financial-Industrial Groups (FIGs), conclusions have been made concerning the formation and functioning of Corporate Intermarket Alliances (CIAs) in transition economies.
Circumstances have been highlighted which might draw firms into CIA, and general directions have been suggested for the introduction of such a form of organization. The options for forming, structuring, and regulating this type of groupings have been analyzed on the basis of experience in the Russian Federation with the corresponding terminology and institutional specificity, albeit the discussion of concrete Russian groups have been evaded. Subject of concrete analysis are the motivation for registering and the procedure for forming official FIGs in Russia, their structure, activity, and prospects for development, as well as possible measures for Government support of FIGs.
JEL: L22, G39

The tendencies to internationalization and globalization of the business are based on the growing interrelation of the business units. These multidimensional processes have many faces. One of them is establishing of the new forms of corporate cooperation, based on the modern communication technologies and information transfer, such like virtual enterprises. The subject of the research is the process of virtualisation, which inspire creation of new forms of organizational structures, which brings competitive advantages today. The main object of the analysis is the modern enterprise, which business philosophy is based on the market successes, appeared as a result of the synergy of cooperating. The formulated aims include the research of the matter and forms of realization, but also the ways of configure of the virtual enterprise. In the result of the research comes out, that the motivation for the creation of the virtual enterprises as a business nets result from the searching of the competitive advantages on the international market. The virtual enterprises are product of the new market environment, which main characteristics are the competitive controversy and the modern technology, but they also work on the modification of these environment. The analyses discover the causal connection between these categories.
JEL: M11, M13, M14, D20, D21