Issue 4, 2012

This paper is aimed to map the development of the NAIRU and the business cycle in the labour market in selected transition economies. The article is focused on methods able to capture the fragile environment in the labour market and in the economy. Sources of instability, changes in development of NAIRU and estimation of changes in the labour market in the near future are the main issues discussed in this paper.
The results of our analysis show that in case of economies in transition the labour market is best described by NAIRU estimated by Kalman filter and HP filter. Kalman filter succeeded in capturing the non stable environment in the labour market. Sources of instability and eventual changes in labour market can be for example the restructuring of the economy, change in nature of trade off between unemployment rate and households´ consumption deflator caused by factors exogenous to the labour market or by the global financial and economic crisis. Findings about non stable environment in past (in the Czech Republic for example years 1999-2000) can be used, under condition of anticipated expectations environment, to the support of hypothesis that the non stable environment is present in the labour market at the end of the examined period (1-3Q 2008). Kalman filter can be used also for testing of time leading between labour market development in various countries and consequently for short term prediction making.
HP filter results support, according to our analysis, the hypothesis resulting from Kalman filter. Gradual reduction in unemployment gap derived by HP filter indicated a forthcoming change in business cycle phases. In one case the HP filter succeeded in predicting the business cycle phases change even sooner than the Kalman filter did.
JEL: E24; E32; E37

The paper analyzes the macroeconomic specifics of the integration of Bulgaria into the European Union. It describes the necessity of integrating a small country like Bulgaria in a regional integration union like EU. It presents the macroeconomic benefits and costs of the EU membership for our country. The paper discusses the readiness of Bulgaria for participation in the Eurozone from the theory of optimal currency area. It analyzes the macroeconomic policy and integration process of Bulgaria in the conditions of global economic crisis.
JEL: F15; F36; E60; F40

This study presents a variant for synthesis of the essential categories utility and value on the level of society. The labour theory of value and the theory of marginal utility are the starting base. Worth (as distinct from value) is the integrating category. That is why the synthesis can be called common theory ofworth. It should be understood as a framework for the explanation of the essence of the functioning of the economy and as a result of the application of a new, organic approach.
JEL: А10; B52; B59

The paper uses a uniform methodological approach for measuring structural changes and irregularity (specialization, concentration), based on the Euclidean distance between the compared structures and distinguishing two factor influences: change of the degree of irregularity and change of the direction of irregularity.
The paper presents main results of a study of the changes in the branch specialization of the regions, the territorial concentration of the industrial branches and branch-territorial structure of the industrial manufacture of the country. It evaluates the dependence between structural changes and growth.
JEL: R12; R50; O18

In this article are presented the results of empirical sociological examination of trade credit terms in Bulgaria and are investigated the determinants of these terms. Based on the data obtained from the empirical sociological examination about the terms to maturity and discounts for payment on delivery is analyzed the trade credit price. The results of the analysis reveal that in the country predominate the simple form of trade credit “net terms”. The majority of trade credits are without interest rates, but the other part are with very high effective implicit interest rate, which stimulate moral hazard in debtors’ behaviour and is a reason for late payments.
JEL: G39; G31; G32

A retrospective analysis of the three waves of biological, conventional and GMO innovations in agriculture has been elaborated. The results lead to the conclusion that there is a huge potential for development of innovations in the field of GMO and bio-products worldwide. The objective of this study is to make an a priori study of marketing innovation strategies of agricultural enterprises in Bulgaria. The major difficulties impeding the diffusion of innovations in our agricultural sector have been explored – inefficient agricultural markets; poor: national and fiscal policy, infrastructure, research and development activities, etc. The role and importance of innovations for the survival and development of agricultural enterprises has been clarified – improving user satisfaction, countering competition and achieving higher profitability, overcoming climate change, seasonality and cyclicality of agricultural processes. The most common reasons hampering innovation processes have been indicated – lack of market knowledge, inappropriate management and high degree of uncertainty and risk of innovations in agriculture. The factors that determine the success of innovations in agricultural enterprises have been analysed: discovery of new markets, appropriate national policy and environment, development of innovation strategies through various forms of joint marketing and clusters to take over the major part of marketing activities in the field of innovations (product-, process-, organizational innovations and their complex effect on marketing innovations) for entering new national and international markets. The problems related to marketing innovations on meso and micro levels have been discussed – underdeveloped branch organisations and communities, low use of contemporary information systems and technologies, poor integration with the research, development and other similar units. The opportunities for marketing innovations on meso and micro level have been defined in terms of products and product structure of agricultural enterprises, distribution and logistics, communication and pricing. Conclusions and major results have been established.
JEL: M39; Q13; Q16

The article presents empirical analysis of demand of natural gas in 12 countries from European Union (EU), including Bulgaria, for the period 1989-2008. The ultimate goal is to assess the short-term and long-term elasticities of demand in different countries and in EU as a whole. These elasticities have to give a plausible picture of changing consumption of natural gas by the households and to allow determination and interpretation of the key indicator of the organization of gas sector – the relative price elasticity.
JEL: C23; C50; L95; R22