Issue 4, 2016

Summary

The present research has two objectives: first, to study the short-term and the long-term economic growth of Bulgaria under a currency board arrangement and second, to identify the main sources of this growth on the demand-side and on the supply-side of the economy. The empirical research on Bulgaria’s economic growth during the transition to a market-oriented economy has been systematized. The dynamics of the final-expenditure-structure of GDP as a determinant of short-run economic growth on the demand-side of the economy has been analyzed. The trends in the movements of the long-run factors of growth (saving rate, rate of productivity growth, rate of population growth, employment and investment) have been investigated. The growth accounting techniques has been employed to identify the main growth determinants on the supply-side of the economy and to measure quantitatively their contributions to the growth of real GDP. Advisable macroeconomic policies to overcome the heavy growth problems of the Bulgarian economy have been formulated.
JEL: O47

Summary

This paper addresses an important issue in the context of the value-based financial management of companies. It concerns the analysis and appraisal of the growth, pursued by management, with regard to its contribution to the value maximization of the firm. The determinants of the value of growth are analyzed. The study indicates that the policy of aggressive growth, applied by many companies, does not always lead to the actual increase of their value. This depends on the quality of growth achieved by them.
JEL: G12; G31; G32

Summary

This article looks at the possibilities of proportional and progressive income tax in Bulgaria, as factors for the formation of economic growth. The empirical study found proportional relationship between progressive taxation and economic growth. Inversely proportional relationship has been registered between the dynamics of growth and the proportional taxation. The results show the presence of synchronicity between progressive income taxation and collection. There have been established evidences for presence of causality.
JEL: E62; H21; H24

Summary

Is considered the increase in global debt and its four main components – liabilities of households, companies, financial institutions and governments. More specifically is analyzed the dynamic of sovereign debt in many developed and developing countries. Based on the experience of the last 200 years when are registered 5 huge waves of mass non-payments of public debt (external and internal), is outlined the risk of adverse developments in the debt situation in the world. Below are possible strategies to reduce the public debt burden. It’s concluded that a possible second wave of the global financial crisis will most likely be triggered by large increases in government debt around the world.
JEL: G01; F34; H63; H68

JEL: F23; F59; F60; L29

Summary

The article briefly presents the concept and framework of regional integration in Africa. It then discusses the principles, history, and current state of negotiations to disclose the effects of EPAs on regional integration efforts in Africa. Then it analyses the trends in international trade relations between the EU and the five EPA regions in Africa for the period 2003-2013, aiming to assess if EPAs have the envisaged positive impact on trade for both the EU, the EPA regions and the participating countries. The analysis includes the direction, dynamics and commodity structure of EU trade with African EPA regions. As a conclusion, the paper presents some general questions posed by the analysis on the future development of EPAs and the trade policy of the EU towards Sub-Saharan African countries.
JEL: F13; F15; F54

Summary

Far-seeing specialists have been long defining the investments into works of art as “shelter investments” for their notably monetary stability throughout political conflicts, economic crises and other situations which any country will find critical. Russian art has provided yet another opportunity to prove this axiom. In spite of the stringency of the international sanctions, rapid oil prices downturn and the instability of the Russian ruble, it was the Russian art which demonstrated, according to New York Times, “a surprising boom”. Sotheby’s and Christie’s have set new Russian records that granted financial hope to many interested players from the external side of the Russian art market. Thus the question arises: how synchronized is the development of the home market with the auction success of the Russian art? The present research is an attempt to give a structured answer to the above question.
JEL: Z11

Summary

After nearly 30 years of renovation, Vietnam has gained remarkable achievements. High growth for many years has helped Vietnam join the group of middle-income countries and its living standards has improved steadily each year. The country’s integration is strong. However, besides the improved quality of growth and macroeconomic environment in the period from 1990 up to now, many problems still exist. The following will show the picture of economic growth and economic stability of Vietnam after 30 years of reform, the challenges posing to the process of development and integration in the near future, and some policy implications for Vietnam Government.
JEL: E63; 040

Summary

Over the past 30 years of renovation, Vietnam’s agriculture has grown sharply in the first phase, agro-product exports have brought about a substantial source of foreign currencies and the agricultural sector has become an important basis for the industrialization economy. However, the agricultural economic structure has been slowed down gradually and there have been signals of slowdown in both speed and growth sustainability, the quality of agricultural development has exposed more shortcomings regarding the structure, competitive capacity and product quality. Over the past 30 years, the rice sector has grown sharply in quantity and has become a pillar not only for the agriculture and rural sector, but also for the whole economy to be secured for the industrialization and integration. The growth in rice production has enabled Vietnam to become a rice export power. However, the perspective on sustaining a constant rice production to ensure the food security or bulk exports may have to pay a price regarding the more expensive opportunity cost when a large area of land needs to be used for rice production. The calculation on transferring a part of the land resource as well as an open policy on the rural land will create a new motivation for agriculture and rural development. Nonetheless, there must be strategic calculation on the emerging of food demand from China as well as unofficial trade forms (gray-trade forms) to work out effective policies and institutions.
JEL: O13

Summary

Although with a low starting point, Vietnam’s industry has achieved positive results with the average growth rate of over 10% per year, a positive contribution to the economic- social development in Vietnam. However, from 2010 to now, the average growth rate of industrial output value has declined. In fact, growth of industry that bases on outsourcing (outputs of manufacturing based on mainly inputs from foreign markets) has lasted for many years. This has clearly revealed the inefficiency and lack of sustainability of the domestic industry. Vietnam's industry is currently characterized by the industries belong to first generation, including industrial products that using more labor, unskilled labor and the products of industry that base on outsourcing). The imbalance in industrial structure of Vietnam is one of the problems noted in the recent years. This is reflected in the lack of supporting industries to manufacture capital goods and industries have high scientific content. In addition, development of industries still has spread over country, lack of key industries to make tower cranes for the development of whole industry. Therefore, in order to become a developed industrial country with over 80 million inhabitants, Vietnam’s industry require to have an accelerated development strategy and reasonable implement policy.
JEL: L00; L52; O14; O25

Summary

Tourism is an important component of the modern Vietnamese economy. Since foreign tourists have been able to travel freely in the country in 1997, Vietnam has become a new tourist destination in Southeast Asia. The economy of Vietnam has transformed from an agrarian to a service economy. More than a third of gross domestic product is generated by services, which include the hotel and catering industry and transportation. This paper aims to describe an overview and draw some policy issues on tourism in Vietnam.
JEL: Z30, O00

Summary

Over the three decades of economic renovation, Vietnam banking sector has been reformed in market-oriented directions and in compliance with international financial standards. The context of deeper financial integration requires a more efficient, resilient and competitive banking sector in the country. For this purposes, in the years to come, the following regulatory measures should be taken into consideration: (1) strengthening the autonomy and capability for the SBV; (2) continuing process of financial restructuring and liberalization to further improve the competitive market behavior; (3) promoting prudent risk management and supervision; (4) cooperating proactively, actively with other countries to cope with common financial risks at regional level; and (5) building a more concrete framework and appropriate roadmap to improve the convertibility of the national currency (Vietnam Dong).
JEL: E52; E58; F36; F38

Summary

International economic integration has been a driving force of Vietnam’s growth since Vietnam introduced Doi Moi policy (Renovation) in 1986. This paper focuses on analysing two important aspects of Vietnam’s economic integration, i.e. trade and investment relations between Vietnam and other countries using various trade and investment databases (Vietnam’s General Statistics Office, General Department of Vietnam’s Customs, and UN’s COMTRADE). Study findings show that there have been long-term challenges for Vietnam’s trade structure such as main share of low value of export goods, persistent trade deficit, and main share of import comes from intermediate goods. As for FDI, there is concern on its quality since knowledge-based sectors, such as health, education, training, science and technology, finance, banking and insurance are only modest. Some policy recommendations are put forward to improve trade structure and FDI quality for long-term growth.
JEL: F15; F21