Issue 6, 2019

The significant theories in the study of the relationship between inward FDI and GDP are examined, taking into account the importance of multinational companies being heterogeneous firms for the economic development of the host country. The conclusion is reached that a universal model cannot be applied, and therefore a specific model is created based on the data taken from the Bulgarian economy. It is discovered that there are three significant variables that affect the size of the inflow of FDI: the percentage increase in the GDP during the previous period, the percentage increase in the accumulated FDI and the increase in the so-called risk premium. The introduction of the last variable in the model is theoretically substantiated, alternatively using the theory of the optimal capital structure and the analysis of the IS-LM-BoP model. An examination is made of the data on the Bulgarian economy which show that the growth in FDI inflows is inversely related to the growth of the GDP during the previous period and to that of the risk premium, but that it is directly related to the growth in the accumulated FDI. The conclusion reached is that the growth in the FDI inflows depends primarily on the ability of the host country’s economy to create the necessary conditions to generate a sufficiently high return on FDI.
JEL: E22; F21; F43

A politico-economic approach is presented for the exploration of the changes that occur in statistics as a result of the transformations in three sets of factors – technologies, politics and economics, and hence in the methods of collecting, storing and analysing data. The main stages in the development of statistics are examined, taking into account the changes in the data processing technologies and the ever changing needs of politico-economic systems. Big Data and the challenges it poses to traditional statistics are analysed. On the one hand, it is able to reveal previously unseen trends and to optimize more human activities, but on the other hand it gives rise to many new questions that are waiting to be answered. These questions stem from the fact that by changing statistics big data tends to change politics, economics, societies and any activity that demands for decisions to be made.
JEL: A12; C10; C8; O25; P16

A comprehensive approach is proposed in order to link the effects of the impacts of climate change on the average yields and the economic development of fruit production. Based on the available data on the characteristics of the South-Eastern region of Bulgaria and the main fruit crops grown there, a methodology for forecasting the average yields of apples, pears, peaches, nectarines and various sorts of apricots and plums is developed and tested, taking into account the changes in the climate. Based on the established empirical relationships between the average yields of crops and the climatic factors on which they depend, the expected yields by 2050 and the area required for growing each crop are predicted. The opportunities for fruit production are revealed. The levels of production and investment required for it are determined and their efficiency is examined.
JEL: Q14