Issue 5, 2019

We discuss a dynamic model for managing network traffic flows of a network air carrier based: (i) on a detailed analysis of the pre-existing freight traffic along the routes of the air carrier network in terms of the volume of cargo being transported and the fares for key destinations, and (ii) on the analysis of current data on the existing traffic of the network air carrier. We observe irregularity in the freight traffic and fluctuations in the demand and in the fares with respect of the different destinations.
JEL: C6; R42; L93

Despite the fact that people are living in the early days of the upgrading digital economy, in the recent years, it has already had a huge impacts on their human development and the evolutionary progress of the modern society. The main problems that need to be solved are developing innovative strategies to manage human development and to consider the digital change influence. The current research purpose is to define an available institutional background to create different strategy models for human development under the condition of global digital change in Ukraine. The article is based on international indicators of human development and digital change in Ukraine, which has been analyzed to define current national economy positions and calculate probable strategies. The main constitutive characteristics, features, and functions of human development components are defined. The dynamic and static analysis of national human development positions is made (HDI, HCI, PI). The strengthening, neutral and weakening of national economy are researched (SNW analysis). A framework of macro-environmental factors for human development in the area of digital change is scanned (PEST analysis). The above mentioned strategic models create basic to calculate possible innovative strategies probabilities under conditions of global digital change (Transition matrix of Markov chain). The innovative human development and digital change strategies are represented within one-side, balanced and prevail models. The strategic national priorities realization is possible in case of balanced models both for human development and digital change realization in Ukraine.
JEL: G41; I25; I32; O3; M52

The article considers the specifics of demographic development in Bulgaria, compared to that of the EU-28. The natural movement of the population and internal migration in the country is analyzed. The focus is on the combined influence of the three main demographic processes – fertility, mortality and migration, which are considered as the main determinants of human resource development and economic activity. To illustrate these processes, a survey was conducted and described in the village of Smilyan, Smolyan municipality. The specificity and role of two demographic processes (population aging and depopulation) in several contexts are examined – the concept of active aging in the EU and its implementation in Bulgaria, their impact on labor productivity and economic growth, the health status of the elderly as potential for work and employment, etc.
JEL: J11; J14; J16; F22; R13

The paper studies the development of migration processes to and from Bulgaria and their impact on the country’s economic development. More specifically, it addresses the characteristics and trends of emigration from Bulgaria and those of immigration to the country. Its aim is to explore the complex internal structure and trends in individual migration flows in a very interesting historical period in which two strong external factors influence Bulgaria, the EU and the whole world in general – the global financial and economic crisis and the refugee crisis. In this environment, the processes are developing dynamically, changing the balances in the various migrant groups and increasing the unpredictability of migration. The paper firstly presents the European labour market and the free movement of people as external environment of migratory movements. It studies all structural features of outgoing migration, then the characteristics of incoming migration to the country. Lastly, it assesses the demographic and economic effects of immigration. Instead of a conclusion, the paper draws some recommendations on some effective policies to deal with the negative effects of emigration.
JEL: F22; J61; O15

The feeling of an increased, intrinsic uncertainty, due to the rapidly changing situation in the financial sector, consumer attitude changes, growing employees’ expectations and the significant political uncertainty in a digitally transformed world, forces organizations to invest in developing new coping strategies. Thus, in this changing environment, along with the issue of efficiency, the need for the organizations to protect themselves from and pass through a variety of potential shocks and crises becomes of a primary importance.
The article outlines the thesis of the organization’s resilience as a competence to overcome the shocks and to retain organization’s main purpose by creating an adequate corporate culture that encourages the continuous exchange of information, the empowerment of every employee to react independently and in a timely manner, and the employees’ dedication for work. An essential part of this type of corporate culture is also the acceptance of the idea that disruptions represent a part of the functioning of each organization and therefore a special attention has to be paid to conditioning for such extreme situations.
JEL: L2; M140; M2

A segmentation-based tax debt management is the most perspective way to improve tax collection. Despite the innovations in the tax debtor segmentation the amount of the tax debt in most countries continues to be grown. Especially the share of an “old” debt remains high. It actualizes the further search of the alternative ways to tax debtor segmentation.The authors suggest to segment tax debtors on the debt nonpayment risk estimation. They form the segments that mean the risk category. Each segment consists of the sub-segments divided according to the criteria of the tax debt amount and age. Using the method of risk integrate estimation the authors determine the marginal indicators according to which the tax debtors should be distributed under the sub-segments. The indicators chosen for risk estimation mirror the propensity to pay and capacity to pay. The authors suggest the strategies of tax debt management for each sub-segment of the tax debtors. They reflect such way of interrelations between the fiscal authorities and tax debtors, in which the tax debtors have the opportunity to pay independently without enforcement, and each subsequent stronger impact on the debtor depends on its reaction to the previous intervention. The debtor moves to the next category of risk, if within a certain time he did not respond to a softer strategy. The main goal of such approach is to provide the tax debt repayment on the early stages of its emergence and prevent it from aging.
JEL: C38; C58; G41; H26

The issue of assessing the quality of integrated accounting of economic entities by means of an econometric model is outlined. It is established that the econometric model of integrated accounting quality assessment is a reliable tool for its estimation. The purpose of the study is to design an econometric model for better assessing the quality of integrated reporting. Because of the research, the criteria were allocated for constructing an econometric model for assessing the quality of integrated statements, the changes in the indicators that effect on the quality of the integrated statements of the subjects of economic activity was analyzed. The correlation matrix of the criteria included in the integrated statements was formed; the influence of the indicators included in an integrated statement for its overall assessment was defined; the results of an econometric model for assessing the quality of integrated statements of economic entities were analyzed. The theoretical substantiation and development of practical recommendations for assessing the quality of integrated reporting through an econometric model are relevant and important for users of such reporting. Particularly relevant is the importance of introducing an econometric model for assessing the quality of integrated reporting for countries with economies in transition. Approaches to assessing the quality of integrated reporting with the help of an econometric model are proposed. The obtained results are the basis for the output of integrated reporting of business entities to a qualitatively new level. The scope of research results is recommended to all economic entities during the preparation, compilation, submission and disclosure of integrated reporting. The conclusions and prospects of further researches in the direction of use of three other criteria for constructing an econometric model of estimating the quality of integrated reporting, namely: 1) disclosure of information on activities in the field of sustainable development; 2) compliance with the recommendations of the International Council for Integrated Reporting; 3) Interaction with stakeholders.
JEL: M40; M41; M49

The problem of corruption in Ukraine has been examined, as well as Blockchain technology application feasibility in combating the phenomenon has been analyzed in the article. Blockchain instrumental features and properties, making the technology unique and determining its potential applications in many sectors of the economy, have been covered with much attention. The authors have analyzed both advantages and obstacles for a distributed data registry implementation. Analysis of benchmarks and application of the best practices of Blockchain technology in the public sector, including the fiscal process, have been presented in the study. Profound interest in exploring the technology feasibility has been emphasized on the part of the world's leading governments. Information on pilot Blockchain projects in the public sector of Ukraine has been presented. The article focuses on the fact that alongside with the technology area and ways of scaling its application, a new era of digital society development is emerging.
JEL: L86; О33; Е62; Н26

The article is devoted to the forecasting of gross agricultural output of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine with an application of STELLA program. The STELLA economic modelling program, which combines mathematical differential equations with a developed graphical interface, has been used in the article. In this program a model was created and an attempt was made to forecast the gross agricultural output of agrarian enterprises of Ukraine by 2030. It has been the possible growth up to UAH 147319 mln UA of output of agricultural enterprises (PRODUCTION) with a slight reduction and further stabilization of the agricultural land (AREA) at the level of 22600 thousand hectares, a constant increase in fertilizers to 135 kg per hectare (FERTILIZATION) and a steady growth of enterprises up to 60900 (ENTERP). The most promising possibilities for applying STELLA program in economic forecasting have been outlined in the article.
JEL: H82; O21

This study analyses the effect and the impact of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) subsidies on the production structure of a selected agricultural enterprise operating in a mountainous area. Оn the bases of mathematical model of the economy is to optimize the gross margin and the farm profit by allocating available resources according to the restrictions imposed. During the process of solving them, we considered into account many complex factors and dependencies. It is concluded that subsidies received under CAP have no impact on the structure of production. The article presents one case from which no general conclusions can be drawn about the effect of CAP subsidies on all farms. When applying the model in practice, it should be borne in mind that the model results have a number of conventions, which is a challenge for managers not to make hasty decisions based on the optimization of the task's solution.
JEL: C36; C54; C61; Q12; Q18