Issue 3, 2008

Analyzed is the condition of the Bulgarian economy for 2008 from the point of view of arising internal stains and disbalances. In the first part studied is the dynamics of particular elements of GDP and it is shown that the economic expansion in the last decade is due to import of goods and services. The GDP increase is predetermined by internal demand. A following outrunning increase on sector level marks the component which is conditionally named “correctives” which is filled by indirect taxes. In the industrial sector fastest growth has building, and in the service sector – financial mediation. Such disharmony could not carry on in a perspective because of which possible and probable is a structural change connected to a complete adjustment of the economy. Examined are the changes in inflation, employment and taxes. Outlined is a clear positive trend of inflation pressure which corresponds to a positive dynamics of real income of a person of housekeep. Material and financial resources are frozen in non-producing objects so the internal demand increases without being accompanied structurally by opposing supply. Analyzed is the financial mediation. The credit activity of the bank system is held on a unmeasured high level that does not correspond to the structural characteristics of demand. Generalized are conclusions on the accumulation of structural tension in the economy accompanied by an increase of disbalances. An attempt is made to formulate adequate macroeconomical management influences aiming not to allow serious economic and financial unprosperities as a consequence of a certain degree of overheating in the Bulgarian economy.

JEL: С82; Е01; Е27

In the new or so called endogenous theory of growth is grounded on the concept of a more precise measurement of technological progress. In connection to this a critical assessment is made of the measure of total factor productivity (TFP) from a current position, which is in the grounds in the neoclassical model of economic growth. Analyzed is the nature of this measure with the purpose of showing the unrealistic basis on which the concept is formed. Examined are the theoretical and applied weaknesses of TFP.

JEL: D24; C32; E13

Subject of research are the nature and mechanism for realization of the system-forming functions (economization, socialization and organization) of vital activity in the context of the economic civilization. They are generalized on the basis of the main in the sphere (economic, social and organizational sphere) and intersphere vital space – genetic and sociative. proved is the place and role of the social ferment (science) as a energetic core of the accelerated economic progress. Economization and socialization are analyzed in the context of aim definition consecutive in the institutions, the social and economic sphere. Attention is paid to the characteristics of economization in the public retransformation process – causes for the stock-money relations; the single in the public market system and the market defects of the economic organization of the public sector.

JEL: А12; А13; Н83

An attempt is made to evaluate quantitatively the stage of integration of the West European stock market and this of the last accessed the EU countries – Bulgaria and Romania. Staring point of the study is the formation of dynamic rows of chosen main market indexes of the most liquid stocks of first class emitents on these markets. Next examined are the trend models of the obtained dynamic rows. On the basis of the conducted analysis of the short-term and long-term dependence between the indexes a quantitative evaluation is made for the stage of connection of the old and new stock markets in the beginning of this century.

JEL: G15; F15

The study examines the problems of developing and evaluating a econometric tools for analysis of the labour market in Bulgaria. Applied is an error correction model and a cointegrational analysis to evaluate the main interactions between labour market parameters for the period 1991-2006. In the model are included and examined the most important indexes that characterize the functioning of the labour market (unemployment, employment, wages, productivity of labour and inflation). Through the evaluated restricted version of a vector autoregression model and decomposition of errors is determined the impact of main shocks by the aggregate supply and demand, inflation, wages and technological changes in the prognosis of the evaluated variables. The evaluated model is stable and adequate. The results show that decrease in the level of unemployment is possible only in the presence of positive shocks by the aggregate supply.

JEL: C 52; C53; J30; J60

An attempt is made to clarify and interpret some more important application aspects of ABC-Analysis in the realization channels. The main goal is to be proved that this method is a suitable economic instrument for evaluation of the contribution of individual participants to the aggregate result of the activity of a given realization channel. The method’s importance in grounding and constructing more effective work modes of these channels is defined through outlining of the technological stages of its usage. General conclusions on the advantages of the application of the examined method are drawn by means of adoption of a exemplary distribution of costs on the forming of one channel.

JEL: L81; F18