My brief comments on this question are as follows:

First. I don’t believe the new political situation in Austria will affect the EU enlargement. The new Austrian government would not dear to block EU decisions on enlargement if supported by all other countries. Austria is too weak politically and economically to afford it, risking to antagonize the rest of Europe, both Western and Eastern.The initial reaction of the EU governments was strong enough to paralise potential wishes (if any) of Austrian ministers from Mr.Haider’s party to prevent enlargement.

Second. I don’t believe the EU governments were right in emphasizing on Mr. Haider’s neofashist ideology and/or sympathies. Neither is it fair to blame 27% of the Austrians on sympathies to such inhuman ideology. I lived more than 12 years in Austria as UNIDO staff member and have a high respect of the Austrian people and their wisdom.

The key issue is the large -scale immigration from CEE countries to Austria. The enlargement will produce, among other things, even larger-scale immigration to the present EU countries for obvious reasons. The bigger the gap between living standards of the present EU members and the newcomers the larger the immigration flows to be expected. It is hardly necessary to explain the obvious negative impact of the immigration on the labour market; on the bargaining position of job seekers and the income level; on the housing market; on criminality rate and so on in the present EU countries.

The Austrian voters supported Mr. Haider’s party, because it is against massive immigration and promised to curtail it, and not for pro nazi nostalgia. The Austrians were exposed to this immigration for nearly 20 years more than any other EU country due to their long common frontier with CEE countries.

Third. I’m fearful, we will witness a larger scale of the Haider’s syndrome in other EU countries in the years to come. This will be due to a massive inflow of CEE immigrants, the implications of the forthcoming claims by the new members for appropriate share in the CAP funds, in the structural, cohesion, social and other funds. They will also insist for numerous intermediate arrangements for long periods after accession, due to their unpreparedness to face the competition within the Union.

The speedy enlargement will necessitate either higher contributions by the net EU contributors, or reallocation of funds among the net recipients. Both will be painful and difficult, if at all possible to implement. Such measures will certainly exacerbate the already existing anti-enlargement sentiments in the EU member countries.

Fourth. The present leaders of the EU and of the member countries make easily promises to the applicant countries, which are not realistic enough and will be impossible to meet when the deadlines come. I consider this shortsighted behaviour irresponsible, because they seed illusions. I fail to comprehend statements by high- ranking EU officials on the accession of most of the applicant CEE countries within 3-5-7 years, if the Copenhagen criteria are taken seriously. Most of these countries do not and will not have functioning and competitive market economies within 10-15 years. Premature accession will be detrimental to both the EU and to CEE countries. Many politicians don’t seem to understand it!

It’s a different story if major reforms were made, changing the fundamental philosophy of the EU with appropriate modifications (softening) of the Copenhagen criteria! I hope the technocrats in the European Commission and of the EU governments advise their politicians coolmindedly. This is in the interest of both the EU members and the applicants.

The EU faces major challenges during the following years: high unemployment, lagging behind USA on development of ICT and competitiveness, overambitious eastern enlargement, which may destabilize the Union, difficult institutional and other internal reforms, dangerous developments on the Balkans. Isn’t it too much to do it simultaneously within a few years?

For more details on the subject see "Bulgaria and the European Union" in my web site: www.iki.bas.bg/CVita/angelov/index.htm

Prof. Ivan Angelov, Institute of Economics,

Member of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences