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Macroeconomic Aspects of the Budget for 2005-2007

A b s t r a c t

The major objectives for the economic development of Bulgaria over the following years are set along with the means to achieve them. The means must be subordinated to the objectives and facilitate their implementation. One must overcome the confusion of goals with means of socio-economic development imposed by the IMF and readily accepted by Bulgarian governments during the past 15 years.

The budget is a major instrument of the state to prepare Bulgaria for EU accession. Under conditions of a Currency Board (CB) arrangement its role is even more important. The budget policy over the coming years must serve the preparation for EU accession. This calls for more flexible approach on budget revenues and expenditures, on budget balance, fiscal reserve and public debt. Details of the proposed approach are elaborated. The state must do more for development of modern education and science. The pros and cons of the CB arrangement are enumerated. It is stated that the CB has exosted its positive role and the negative one already prevails.

The surplus of the fiscal reserve could be used for creating a special investment fund at the National Insurance Institute. Economic and social arguments for this are provided.

Socio-economic macro framework for 2005-2007 is proposed. Starting with the actual figures for 2003 and the expected ones for 2004 a forecast is made for 29 macro- and microeconomic indicators from 2005 to 2007.

List of Publications