Книжка 2, 2011

Although the European Union (EU) was not the main source of the global financial and economic crisis, as one of the leading economic players, it was fundamentally affected by the immediate and longer-term consequences of the crisis. Similarly, it is expected that it would play an important role in how to get out of the crisis (not yet clear, whether a passive or an active one).
Almost all areas of community-level and member-state-based economic policy were affected by the crisis. Three of them have been chosen to be addressed in this paper. First, the challenge to the Eurozone and the common currency, as an immediate impact of the crisis will be dealt with. Second, as a coordinated answer to crisis management and post-crisis coordinating (and decision-making) mechanism, the idea of European Economic Governance will be analyzed. Third, in a longer-term perspective of post-crisis sustainable growth, the EU 2020 project will be shortly described and assessed.
JEL: O57; F43; F36

This article is a shortened version of a summary that was published in July 2010 as part of an extensive research report carried out by the Institute for World Economic at the order of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies. In this paper four categories of influencing EU affairs by a Member State were introduced, namely agenda-setters (innovative behaviour), decision-shapers (creative influence), decision-takers (passive approach) and decision-blockers (or veto players) reflecting a kind of rigidity in the name of defending national interests. This behaviour was tested on selected policy areas with a view to identifying the new Member States' impact on European integration so far.
JEL: F15; O11

The Central and Eastern European countries outside the Euro area were hit particularly hard by the global credit crunch; their previously fast growth was replaced by a recession, putting their catch-up as part of the integration process into a completely different context. The crisis has made it clear for some of the Central and Eastern European newcomers that growth cannot be maintained based on generous inflows of capital. The abundant international liquidity that marked the years before the crisis vanished, FDI in the region plunged dramatically, and the drying-up of the government bond market imposed extremely tough limits on the external funding of budgetary overspending. The crisis hit Hungary especially hard as this country was already at a low growth path after the 2006 stabilisation package.
JEL: O18; O57

In April 2010 Bulgarian government announced an economic and social plan targeted on counteracting the swift economic downfall and hopefully, on helping the economic recovery. The way the plan was launched and the character of some of the measures created a lot of comments, rejection and controversy among the economic agents in the country. That inspired the main idea of that paper - to look more carefully into the plan. First section outlines roughly the global response to the financial crisis. Section 2 observes the government anti-crisis plan in some detail; the third features plan's specifics summarizing it as a fire plan, comprised of a bunch of neo-liberal measures targeted on shrinking belts and relying on the self-sufficient ability of private business to overcome the recession. Section 4 tries to answer the question - why the plan is as it is - and pays attention to the objective determinants of the plan, to the "ideologemes" which frame the economic thinking of policy makers and points out the first results and the first cracks of that plan. Finally, the paper concludes that, a radical shift away from the neoliberal economic policy seems more and more as an unavoidable decision.
JEL: B52; E32; E61; E65; E66

The economic analyses outlined that the big differences between the Balkan countries economic structure and the average EU one is seriously negatively affecting their economic efficiency. It appears that the Balkan region is becoming the weakest European economic area - the new European economic periphery. It is outlined that the most proper policy that will not lead to problematic economic results for the lagging Balkans countries can be the one of making benefits from their geographical location. Firstly by realising economic cooperation within Balkan countries and secondly throw participating of the Balkans as a sub-regional structure in the Black Sea economic initiatives.
JEL: O47; R11; R58

The BRIC countries, and especially China, have significantly increased their share in the world economy. The Chinese model, with its special approach to development, can be seen as an accelerated version of the Japanese one, which has brought enormous success in Japan, and in the Tiger economies. In the past two decades China has become the EU's most important trading partner, and their relationship is getting more and more symmetric. Although there are areas where they have different approaches, there are much more issues with common interests, and room for cooperation. For Hungary China has been a special partner for decades. After the fall of communism the ties became weaker, and Hungary practically lost almost all of its previous advantage. The EU accession, however, opened up new possibilities, and new channels for the country, to pursue its interests, and regain at least some of its privileged status.
JEL: F01; F15; F49

Object of the study are international migration and FDI, as the main phenomena of the globalization of economic relations. Another aspect is tracking the link, established in recent years, about the relationship between international migration and FDI, as a consequence of the evolution of the concept of the international movement of factors of production. In connection with these conceptual aspects, attempts were done to establish whether there are some connections between the growth of Bulgarian emigration and the formation of the Bulgarian diaspora abroad and the FDI inflows in the country. In particular, in the first section some details were given about the increase of Bulgarian emigration. In the second section some concrete conclusions have been drawn about the impact of FDI on macroeconomic development in Bulgaria. In the third section some possible links between migration and FDI were developed, arguing that some effects of "complementarities" can be established. The fourth section is devoted to the main potential benefit for the Bulgarian economy by the increase in remittances from Bulgarian emigrants to relatives remaining at home. Conclusions were made as well as on the relationship between migration and Bulgarian FDI and the effects on macroeconomic development and the prospects of evolution and the benefits of FDI and remittances like an external financial inflows.
JEL: F21; F22; F24

After becoming the 5th largest FDI recipient worldwide in 2008, foreign direct investments in Russia have largely been impacted by the big crisis. To put these changes in context, this paper starts with an overview of foreign investments in Russia from the beginning. Analyzing the source countries, we argue that round-tripping and trans-shipped FDI significantly mask the real sources. In terms of the regional distribution, high concentration is stressed. Reviewing the industrial breakdown of FDI in Russia, we point out that the fuel industry, mainly the oil production, except for 1999, has had a prominent or a leadership role only since 2003. Despite the Russian natural resource base, foreign investors are now motivated mostly by market-related factors. Before the crisis Russian macroeconomic, fiscal and debt policies improved the investment climate, while the growing state control has had a negative effect. Red tape, poor infrastructure, corruption and complex tax system remained major obstacles. Until the early 2000s, government made few steps to encourage foreign investment. Amid and after the crisis it was explicitly acknowledged at the highest level that resource based Russia needs the West, the foreign investments and knowledge for its modernization. The paper finally turns to investments from Hungary. Despite the low share of Russia in outward FDI from Hungary, there are a few significant investments of Hungarian-based investors, worth to be surveyed.
JEL: G31; G32

In our paper we seek to answer the question of what the publicly available literature says about the upstream and downstream strategies of oil and gas corporations in the first decade of the 21st century. We would like to know what energy source or technology do national and international oil companies focus on in producing hydrocarbons or replacing their hydrocarbon reserves (conventional vs. non-conventional oil or gas, renewables, gas-to-liquid, coal-to-liquid, biofuels, deepwater drilling etc.). Our further question is how the geographic location of upstream and downstream assets changed between 2000 and 2010. In addition, we would like to know how international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) cooperate.
We found that there is quite an extensive literature on the cooperation of NOCs and IOCs, mostly focusing on future expectations and assuming that the groups of IOCs and NOCs are homogeneous. Further, although the questions raised are of crucial importance for oil companies, there is a lack of publicly available research on how individual firms compete, how and whether their focus on different energy sources changed (e.g. from oil to gas), what upstream technology they develop and how they locate their upstream and downstream assets.
JEL: Q01; Q48

Bulgaria is situated in a geopolitical crossroad. This creates opportunities that can be beneficial not only for the country, but also for the region and beyond.
One of the spheres that Bulgaria can take advantage of is the development of energy projects. This can happen in two main directions:
• By serving as energy hub for the region and by distributing natural gas brought via pipelines from Russia and the East.
• Exporting electricity produced in the upgraded production facilities as well as in the nuclear power plant in Belene at present under construction.
The role Bulgaria could play in the energy market as key transit country is due mainly to two factors:
• The geographical location at a crossroad that facilitates it being a mediator between Europe and Asia.
• The present situation on the energy market that leads the European countries to seek alternative routes as well as suppliers for vital energy resources.
Whether and how much Bulgaria is going to utilize its position is a matter of political will in the first place. The opportunities lying ahead and are ready to serve for the prosperity of the region.
JEL: Q4

The paper examines the national currencies and their exchange rate regimes in the successor countries of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which experienced a shift from an optimum currency area to a variety of national currencies. The effects of the existence of several national currencies and of sharing a single currency both unilaterally, and officially, on trade in the region are evaluated. The role of the national currencies and exchange rate regimes in regional economic links are elaborated. Channels through which the substantial instability and excess volatility, as well as the de facto euroization are influencing the banking sectors during the global financial and economic crisis are discussed.
JEL: E32; F31; F41

The report concerns the issue of the significance of education and science for the socio-economic development. The accent is put on their progress as an important way for increasing the influence of small countries in the EU. The study is focused on the case of Bulgaria. Some of the most important problems in the education and science fields in the country are outlined and analysed, such as the absence of strategies for their development, the existing financial barriers, difficulties with the personnel, output and quality, etc. Possibilities for overcoming the existing problems and barriers are presented as a conclusion.
JEL: O32; O33; I2