Книжка 2, 2022

A popular opinion amongst economists is that trade openness leads to the economic growth of a country. However, this relationship is not that straightforward and sometimes inconclusive as well. While the theoretical literature states that opening up an economy increases trade, leading to the country’s economic growth, the empirical findings greatly differ in many cases. This paper explores the impact that trade openness has on the economic growth of select ASEAN countries from 2008 to 2019. For this purpose, first, panel unit root tests have been employed to find out the stationarity of data. Then Pedroni and Kao residual cointegration tests are used to examine the long-run relationship between variables such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Labour Force (LF), and Trade Openness (TO). Finally, long-run estimations have been conducted through FMOLS and DOLS and the causality of the panel is studied through the Dumitrescu Hurlin panel causality test. Our results show that trade openness has a positive impact on the economic growth of select ASEAN countries in the long run.
Keywords: Trade Openness; Economic Growth; ASEAN, Panel Cointegration; Granger Causality
JEL: F15; F14; F13

This article puts the problem of forecasting in economic and business situations under scrutiny. Starting from the premise that accurate forecasting is now a key capability for analyzing problems of business operations and public policy, we investigate the performance of alternative prediction methods that include both traditional econometric approaches as well as novel algorithms from the field of machine learning. The article tests a total of 109 different regression-type algorithms across five pertinent business domains – employee absenteeism, success of online communication, real estate asset pricing, support ticket processing, and demand forecasting. The results indicate that forecasting algorithms tend to produce a set of widely dispersed outcome, with some methods such as random forecast and neural network implementations being able to consistently generate superior performance. We further argue that forecast accuracy is not necessarily predicated upon computational complexity and thus, an optimization decision between the costs and benefits of using a certain algorithm can feasibly be made.
Keywords: forecasting; algorithms; random forest; neural network; regression; machine learning
JEL: C44; C45; C52; D81

The main objective of this article is to examine the existence of a relationship between the shadow economy and macroeconomic factors of production. Based on a dataset of 50 countries over the period from 1991 to 2015, we find that the size of the shadow economy is inversely related to all three macroeconomic production factors – labour, capital stock and total factor productivity. This result provides an explanation for the fact that, in many cases, the shadow economy has a negative impact on economic development. We also find that the strength of the relationship is not the same for all factors of production. While for capital and for total factor productivity, the inverse relationship with the size of the shadow economy is strong, in the case of labour, this relationship exists, but it is weaker. The reason for this is the specific nature of many of the shadow practices, related to undeclared work, which allow such an effect.
The results of the present study could provide arguments for the formation of effective economic policy measures to limit the negative effects of the shadow economy.
Keywords: shadow economy; undeclared work; economic development; GDP per capita; GDP per capita growth rates; macroeconomic factors of production
JEL: E22; E24; E26; O17; O43

The study presents empirical data gathered by recent studies on the factors that determine undeclared work in the Bulgarian economy. The relative weight and the specific functions of six categories of factors have been thoroughly analysed: 1) legislative, 2) situational, 3) mistrust and deficit of prestige to the state, 4) national psychology, 5) economic and 6) personal and family situation. The paper argues that the factors determining undeclared work have complicated and dynamic nature, but if a correct methodological approach is applied, they can be empirically studied and explained. The knowledge of the factors determining the undeclared work provides a basis for contemplating its genesis, nature and dissemination – especially in the case of societies in transition. The better the knowledge and understanding of the factors that determine undeclared work, the more effective and successful are selected and designed approaches and measures to limit and prevent it.
Keywords: undeclared work; gray practices; public opinion
JEL: E26; O17; D73; С18

The study provides both descriptive as well as regression analysis explaining the relative dominance of one city (urban area) over another to attract migrants from other cities. The empirical analysis reveals that the relative size of the informal sector in a city and the magnitude of the flow of foreign direct investment towards these cities foster in-migration. Empirical assessment is based on two estimation techniques, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and Tobit regression analysis. The techniques examine migration patterns across 14 major cities focusing over a time period of 7 years (2005-2006 to 2012-2013). It is found that the labour market variables (expected wages, employment, and unemployment rate) and regional economic contribution have a strong significant influence on inter-city migration flows. Distance, as suggested by the gravity model, and years of education, reflecting human capital, have a significant positive impact on migration flows across urban-urban (cities) regions. Further positive and negative amenities attached to the region significantly influence migration flows towards these areas, supporting theories of location. Migration is an equilibrating response to existing disparities and disequilibrium among regions and across cities. The concentration of economic activities generates employment opportunities, which are a strong driver of migration and development of the region. The study proposed that the government should opt for horizontal urbanisation rather than vertical urbanisation pattern. Hence, if the government wants to target the development of various regions, it should divert economic activities towards the targeted region and cities.
Keywords: Urban-urban migration; Pakistan; Location amenities; Type of cities; Tobit
JEL: J61; J68; R12

The paper presents the results of a study on workplace conflict in Bulgarian organizations. The data were collected by means of a questionnaire among 708 employees. Findings reveal that most Bulgarian employees have to deal with conflict at work to some extent and two in ten employees do so always or frequently. Conflict is most common between entry-level/front-line roles and between managers and their reports. The primary causes leading to disagreements at work are stress, personal clashes and heavy workloads. Employees in Bulgaria mostly often spend 2.5 hours per week dealing with conflict, equating to approximately $1.4 billion in paid hours in 2020. The paper provides original findings on workplace conflict, and therefore, it contributes to the research of conflict in Bulgarian organizations.
Keywords: conflict management; workplace conflict; Bulgaria
JEL: M12; M19

The importance of the interaction of the labour market and the higher education market is beyond doubt. The analysis of scientific articles has shown that this type of interaction is considered by scientists depending on the direction of research. Only a few works are devoted to the quantitative analysis of the interaction of these domestic markets. The task is complicated by the fact that today there is no clear methodology for quantitative analysis of the interaction of subjects of different markets. The authors made an attempt to adapt the analysis methodology proposed by Russian scientists. The methodology used is based on an economic and statistical analysis of the interaction of the labour market and the higher education market, with the determination of the type of interaction under the influence of individual factor indicators of these markets and the use of systematic and structural group data. As a result of quantitative analysis, the lack of elasticity between the supply of universities and the needs of the labour market was revealed. The imbalance has led to the fact that in the sectors of the economy of Kazakhstan, there is a shortage in one industry and a surplus of personnel with higher education in another. The results of this study are important for stakeholders, such as politicians, universities, to solve the problems of unemployment among recent graduates.
Keywords: labour market; demand of labour market, higher education market; proposals from university graduates; interaction; types of interaction of different markets
JEL: A10; I2; J6

Results of research of specific of transfer of educational technologies as a demonstration of them appropriation as of intellectual product was represented in the article. The looks of Ukrainian and foreign scientists on the place of educational technologies in the composition of intellectual capital was analysed. The motives of appropriation of the intellectual product as factors of the mechanism of governance of transfer of educational technologies were defined. On a functional level, this mechanism formalises motives of creation of an environment of transfer of educational technologies for a partnership of all interested sides was discovered. Directions of transfer of educational technologies obtained actualisation on the basis of analysis of the marked motives. Composition of subjects of transfer of educational technologies per their roles as seller, legislator (government authorised organs), technological broker, buyer, was concretised. The contradiction of priorities among economic interests, motives and actions at a combination of roles within one subject was revealed. The factors of external appropriation of the intellectual product by subjects on the stages of “preparation – legitimation – restriction” were found out. The common and distinctive traits of the stages of “preparation – legitimation – restriction” were found. The basic criteria of transfer of educational technologies on the stages of preparation, legitimation and restriction were proposed. The criteria of institutionalisation of external interactions of subjects of the transfer of educational technologies were formalised. Updating of an educational network, including the use of open platforms of informatively-communication technologies and cloudy servers, was proposed. Actual directions of further researches of transfer of educational technologies, methodologies of determination of their market prices with the use of modern ICT, development of the special economic-mathematical models of such estimation was delineated.
Keywords: intellectual product; ownership and appropriation of intellectual product; infrastructure of transfer of educational technologies; informatively-computer technologies
JEL: B41; D11; D23; I25; J24; O34; P26

This study presents the state and dynamics of Bulgarian and foreign trademark activity in Bulgaria, measured by the number of trademark applications and the number of registered trademarks for the period 2000 – 2019. We also show Bulgarian trademark activity abroad. Some of the existing trends in trademark research and their role as an indicator of the business development environment are also considered. We have defined the impact of legislative changes on trademark activity during the examined period. We have confirmed the existence of a relationship between the trademark activity and the state of the business environment.
Keywords: trademark activity; applicant activity; trademark registration; foreign trademark activity; state of business environment
JEL: F23; M31; O34