Issue 1, 2001

The article does an overall analysis of the income policy during the 90-ties. Because of the fact that income is one of the main macroeconomic stabilising factors, the implemented policy has predominantly restrictive character. The Bulgarian economy entered into a deep and prolonged income crisis, as a result of the restrictions and of the unfavourable internal and external economic environment.
The measurements of the income crisis are identified and investigated. The deepness and the scope of this crisis are expressed by a considerable decrease of the real incomes, an increase of the differentiation of earnings, lagging of minimal wages in respect of inflation, formation of unfavourable income structure and others. The economic and social effects are connected with a wide expansion of poverty, decrease of consumption and savings, demotivation of the labour force, a weak dependence of the working salary on economic results, stimulation of the informal economy and others.
On this basis, conclusions and proposals for changes of the income policy are made, so as to solve the accumulated problems and answer the challenges of Bulgaria's accession to the EC.

Determining the long-term perspectives in front of the Bulgarian economy is an essential condition for its competitive development and integration in the world production and trade networks. Besides being a subject of a wide professional discussion, this should be a start of the elaboration of a National Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of Bulgaria, which is a high priority prerogative of the highest state administration. The aim of the article is to indirectly take part in the discussion and eventually provoke its expansion and increase its complexity. The views expressed in it are based on the investigations completed and results obtained by the author.

The main aim of the undertaking is to define and implement a methodology for forecasting the business cycle and particularly the leading composite indicator. This methodology consolidates some elements recognized in the literature with some new elements of estimating and ranging of forecasts. It uses all the effective information from the numerous forecasts and synthesises them into one combined forecast.

The article puts an accent on three aspects, which are shown through the prism of the specific cognitive potential of the statistical aggregate characteristics: the place of statistical information in the investigation of the social practice and in the scientific knowledge; the most widespread unintentional errors of the analysis, explanation and presentation of the aggregate statistical characteristics; the deliberate confusions from data manipulations, connected with unscrupulous and corrupt intentions. The main problem here is whether it is possible and in what way, the interests of society should be protected from such errors and deliberate confusions.